How do voters decide who to vote?

Voter Decision Science

By Harish Bijoor


How does a voter decide whom to vote?

The question is a critical one. We therefore decided to do a study on the voter decision-making matrix. The sample size had to be small. Anything that you do as primary market research in India is bound to be small sample-size anyway. Remember, we are a nation of 1.3 Billion people! The sample size: 11,450 voters across 18 cities. Big cities such as a Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore and smaller Tier 2 towns such as an Agra, Tiruchy and Trivandrum, and smaller towns such as a Peddapuram and Hoshiarpur and many towns of their ilk.

The question: What goes into that one decision of who to vote?

The answers have just come in. Here go the logic patterns that seem to dominate the vote decision-making format.

1. The negative weeding out: This is where the voter is sitting out in judgment. Here she looks at anything negative that has come to the fore in the last five years with respect to a candidate or a party in question. Most of the time (82 %) this is party-based. Here, parties such as the Ram Sene have done damage to the image of the BJP in Karnataka. Moral policing is a positive and a negative though. In the bigger cities it is seen as a negative. In the smaller towns and villages it is seen as a positive. The BJP therefore gains from it in the smaller towns and loses precious votes because of it in the big cities. Raj Thackeray has similarly done damage to the vote sentiment in favor of the Shiv Sena in the bigger cities of Maharashtra and a positive impact on vote sentiment in the smaller towns.

2. Positive work by candidate: This figures high (43%) on the radar of decision making. Voters want to first quickly assess their voting constituency and then want to know the names of candidates. Once that is done, a quick and irrational decision even, is made. What counts at the forefront of decision making is the immediate good or bad work done by the candidate in question. History does not matter,. The last 14-18 months are important. The voter’s memory is reasonably short on this count.


3. The Issues-based pattern: These are macro issues that fashion out quick voter judgments. These are about the big phrases such as “Secularism”, “Nationalism”, “Patriotic” and “People centric” semantics.

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4. Religion-based pattern: This is a big one in itself. A lot of association is built up by the person standing out there asking for your vote. If there are two candidates of the same religious tag, other details will be gone into. Otherwise, and sadly so, this counts a lot. Even today.

5. Caste-based pattern: Caste plays a major role. Is the candidate a Kamma? A Reddy? A Vokkaliga? A Lingayat? A Brahmin? 31 percentile points here.


6. Touch-based factors: Have I seen the candidate at all in Print, Television or in person? Has he come to my door for canvassing? Have I seen him in the field addressing a gathering? This counts. Never mind whether the candidate caused goose-flesh in me or not, this is important. It could swing a vote.


7. Positive work by party: Sadly the positive work done by a particular party comes relatively low down in the decision making matrix. Parties and their overall work seem to boil down to a very lowest-common denominator status. All parties are meant to do good work. This is not a differentiator, it seems. Parties gain precious little out here, just as long as they have not been debarred from political activity or just as long as they have not harbored terrorists with anti-India intent.

8. The anti-incumbency factor: I gave him or her a chance for five years. Time to pick the other party candidate and give him or her a chance. As many as 6% in the voter segments want to do this.

This is a tough game. Many things go into that one decision on the vote. This is a science. An art. A philosophy on its own.


Harish Bijoor is a Brand and Political strategy specialist.
Email: harishbijoor@hotmail.com
Mobile: 0 98440 83491